Research library
Research note · 11 Nov 2026
AI-infrastructure shares after the October–November rout: what broke, what held, and which miner-to-AI converters came through with contracts and funding intact.
Compute Terminal Research · prices are exchange closes to 10 Nov 2026
The note in five lines
| Date | Event and market move |
|---|---|
| 6 Oct | Nvidia closes at US$239.24, its 52-week closing high. |
| 28 Oct | The Federal Reserve holds its target range at 3.75–4.00%, having raised it by 25 basis points in September. |
| 2–3 Nov | Oracle raises US$20bn: 86.2m new shares at US$116, 11.2% below the 30 Oct close, and US$10bn of notes with coupons of 7.000–8.650%. |
| 3–4 Nov | Texas elects Gina Hinojosa governor; she has called for a moratorium on new datacentres until the legislature sets protections. On 4 Nov Hut 8 falls 23.2% and Cipher Digital 20.0%; Riot rises 9.6% after announcing its Corsicana lease. |
| 5 Nov | The PHLX Semiconductor index falls 12.2% to 9,011.14. Nvidia −9.3%, IREN −17.0%. CoreWeave's five-year credit default swaps trade above 1,289 basis points. |
| 8–10 Nov | Nvidia's board opens an independent investigation after reports that its chief executive had been the target of a foreign intelligence effort; it says it has no reason to believe company secrets were compromised. October consumer prices rise 0.4% on the month. Nvidia −4.3% and −5.5%, to US$168.89. |
| 10 Nov | After the close, CoreWeave reports third-quarter revenue of US$3.66bn, up 168%, and raises its 2026 revenue guidance to US$13.0–13.3bn. |
Sources: exchange closes; company releases; Federal Reserve; US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Full list at the end of the note.
Source: exchange closes, 6 Oct and 10 Nov 2026; Compute Terminal calculations. 6 Oct is Nvidia's 52-week closing high.
Nothing in the operating numbers explains a fall of this size. The financing numbers do. Debt-funded build-outs met a central bank that is raising rates again, and lenders repriced the weakest balance sheets first.
CoreWeave's 2032 notes yielded more than 16% on 6 Nov against a coupon of 9.625%. Its answer on 10 Nov was to stop borrowing that way: no new unsecured debt at the parent through 2027 at current yields, with growth funded instead by loans secured on customer contracts and by about US$9bn of customer prepayments and deposits due over the next three months. Its interest bill was US$846m in the third quarter and is guided to US$1.05–1.15bn in the fourth. Oracle, with US$125.3bn of borrowings at 31 Aug, raised half of its US$20bn in new shares. Futures put the probability of a further 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rise in December at 87.1%, and of 50 basis points at 12.9% (CME FedWatch, 11 Nov).
Every demand reading published during the rout pointed the other way.
The seven listed miner-to-AI converters below all hold long-term contracts. Their shares have moved between −4.5% and −57.9% since 6 Oct. What separates them is whether the build is already funded and whether the power sits inside the Texas grid audit.
| Company | Capacity | Contracted revenue | Texas grid audit | Shares, 6 Oct–10 Nov |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riot Platforms RIOT | 1,151 MW | about US$38bn | Energised; outside the audit | −4.5% |
| TeraWulf WULF | 839 MW | US$19bn (Anthropic lease) | None: New York, Kentucky | −16.1% |
| Core Scientific CORZ | over 1.1 GW | US$1.8bn a year at run-rate | Texas sites in build | −21.3% |
| Applied Digital APLD | 1.41 GW | about US$36bn | None: N. Dakota, Louisiana, Alabama | −34.2% |
| Hut 8 HUT | 949 MW | about US$26.6bn | In audit; ruling expected 17 Dec | −38.4% |
| IREN | GPU cloud | US$20bn backlog | Texas sites | −52.2% |
| Cipher Digital CIFR | 700 MW gross | US$16.6bn | 2.6 GW pipeline conditional | −57.9% |
Capacity is contracted critical IT load unless stated. Contracted revenue is company-stated, over initial lease terms. Sources: company third-quarter releases, filings and calls, 7 Oct–6 Nov 2026; exchange closes.
Riot is the clearest case. Its Corsicana lease is triple-net, at a build cost of about US$6m per IT megawatt, and management does not expect to issue equity for its announced projects. Its filing states that existing Rockdale and Corsicana capacity is already energised and not subject to the audit. TeraWulf has no Texas sites after selling its Abernathy stake, held about US$2.4bn of cash and restricted cash at 30 Sep, and has a Google credit backstop for the financing of its largest lease. Hut 8 has funded River Bend and Beacon Point Phase 1 through completion with investment-grade, non-recourse project bonds and expects no further equity; its shares are 38.4% lower because Beacon Point's base-load status waits on the audit.
Applied Digital has no Texas exposure and says nearly 80% of its contracted power has investment-grade support, but its first campus is leased to CoreWeave. Core Scientific is billing 485 MW and expects no equity for the first phase of its AMD build, with project bonds still to be placed. IREN owns the GPUs as well as the sites, which makes it the most capital-hungry model in the group: it raised US$2.36bn of debt and US$498m of equity in the September quarter, and its ramp to more than US$4bn of annualised revenue now extends into early 2027. Cipher Digital carries about US$6.7bn of debt and says its contracted projects are funded, but the Texas pipeline behind its growth has only conditional classifications.
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov | Nvidia quarterly results | The first read on demand since the rout, with the board investigation unresolved. |
| 8–9 Dec | Federal Reserve meeting | A rise is priced; the size and the outlook set funding costs for 2027. |
| December | Texas grid audit due | State permits for datacentres stay paused until ERCOT completes it. |
| 17 Dec | Hut 8 expects its Beacon Point classification | A first test of how audited projects are treated. |
Our reading: this is a relief rally with a credible path to a durable low, not yet a confirmed one. It becomes one if Nvidia's results confirm demand, if credit spreads for the second tier of builders keep narrowing, and if the Texas audit lands without new limits on capacity already in the queue.
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Method. Share-price changes are from the 6 Oct 2026 close to the 10 Nov 2026 close; one-day moves are close to close. Contracted capacity and revenue are as stated by each company and are not adjusted for differences in definition. This note gives no ratings and no valuation targets.
Sources. Exchange closes, 6 Oct–10 Nov 2026. PHLX Semiconductor index closes as reported by 24/7 Wall St., 6 Nov. CoreWeave third-quarter results and call, 10 Nov; CoreWeave credit default swaps and 2032 notes as reported by 24/7 Wall St., 7 Nov. Oracle pricing release, 3 Nov; Reuters, 2 Nov. Federal Reserve; US Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index, 10 Nov; CME FedWatch as reported by FXStreet, 11 Nov. Hyperscaler capex: SEC filings, purchases of property and equipment, Compute Terminal calculation (compute-terminal.com/methodology). Third-quarter releases, filings and calls of Riot Platforms and Hut 8 (4 Nov), Cipher Digital (2 Nov), Core Scientific and IREN (5 Nov), TeraWulf (6 Nov) and Applied Digital (7 Oct). Texas: Riot Platforms Form 10-Q, 4 Nov; JD Supra, 24 Sep; Benzinga, 4 Nov. Nvidia board statements of 8 and 10 Nov as reported by Finwire, 11 Nov.
Disclosures. Our founder is also a senior executive at one of the leading global AI infrastructure companies. Compute Terminal is independent of that company. Positions: Compute Terminal Research, its founder and affiliated entities hold no positions in the companies named in this note (as at 11 Nov 2026).
Impersonal, general research for professional market participants, including professional and sophisticated investors where receipt of such research is lawful. Not investment, procurement, engineering, legal or tax advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. © 2026 Apex Management Int LLC.
Not investment advice.